Lake Ontario model output for Burlington from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry’s Surface Water Monitoring Centre is forecasting a storm surge of 1.34 metres above the International Great Lakes Datum (m LGLD) of 74.2 metres and maximum wave heights of 1.56 metres. Lake levels are expected to be in the range of 76.3 m IGLD.
The 2017 lake flood damage threshold was established at a static lake elevation of 75.45 m IGLD when waves generated during a storm event overtopped and damaged several shoreline structures. This local damage threshold elevation does not account for wave generated by winds which can increase flood elevations and cause additional damages; this is especially true with onshore winds associated with storms.
Watercourses discharging directly into Lake Ontario could be impacted by backwater from the lake. Onshore waves could result in erosion and unstable banks. Residents and visitors to the Lake Ontario shoreline areas should use extreme caution and obey all closure notices for trails and pathways. As lake levels increase, certain areas may be cut off or isolated.
CVC will continue to monitor weather and lake conditions. This Lake Ontario Shoreline Flood Watch will be in effect until Fri-May-22-2020 at 4 pm or updated prior to.
For more information on this Lake Ontario Shoreline Flood Watch, contact CVC during office hours at 905- 670-1615.
To view current watershed conditions, visit our real-time monitoring website: